599  
WTNT44 KNHC 090842  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
500 AM AST THU NOV 09 2017  
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION NEAR THE POSSIBLE CENTER  
HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DETACHED WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING  
ELONGATED. IN FACT, MY INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PRIMARILY  
BASED ON CONTINUITY. RINA IS OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CYCLONE, SO THE NHC FORECAST CALLS  
FOR RINA TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. VISIBLE  
IMAGES LATER THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY HELP TO DETERMINE THE  
STRUCTURE OF RINA IF A CYCLONE EXISTS BY THEN.  
 
RINA OR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD MOVE FAST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST  
AND THEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY  
FLOW. GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS USE IN THE  
NHC FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 09/0900Z 44.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER AVILA  
 
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