793  
AXNT20 KNHC 091721  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1221 PM EST THU NOV 9 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1645 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 47.0N 45.5W AT 09/1500 UTC  
OR ABOUT 310 NM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1285 NM SW  
OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MOVING NE AT 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM  
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT  
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 46N-  
49N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO  
09N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
09N18W TO 08N24W TO 10N28W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N34W TO 07N40W TO  
06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN  
05W-14W...AND FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 18W-32W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NW GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON  
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION  
NEAR 30N83W INTO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N96W THEN  
SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE  
OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SW GULF IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE  
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N95W TO 20N92W. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...  
WHILE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT AND N-NW  
WINDS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AND LIKELY STALL FROM THE SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 18N94W. FRESH TO  
OCCASIONAL STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N-NW WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE  
COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND ACROSS THE SE CONUS...INCREASING E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
GENERALLY BROAD LOWER PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR  
12N76W OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING IS  
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS  
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TO A BASE  
NEAR 16N81W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE  
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS  
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 63W-  
76W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING  
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-84W. OTHERWISE...W OF  
THE SURFACE TROUGH...GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL  
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE SURFACE  
TROUGH. THIS OVERALL BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN  
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION S-SW  
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO A  
BASE NEAR 16N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED E OF  
THE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING  
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 63W-74W. THIS CONVECTION  
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IF  
STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND  
INSTABILITY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE LOCATIONS OF MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST SW  
TO OVER ALABAMA AND FINALLY THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE  
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N73W TO THE  
FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD  
FRONT NEAR 30N79W TO NEAR PORT EVERGLADES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N67W TO 28N64W WITHIN THE SOUTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N63W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N-24N  
BETWEEN 62W-72W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 47W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM  
22N51W TO 26N48W TO 31N48W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 43W-46W. TO THE NE OF  
THIS CONVECTION...A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1042  
MB HIGH CENTERED N-NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N22W. THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 15N WITH NE  
WINDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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