713  
AXNT20 KNHC 100518  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1218 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0500 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA BISSAU ON THE AFRICAN  
COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N19W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL  
CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 07N24W TO 07N38W TO FRENCH GUIANA  
ON THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 14W  
AND 25W AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE NW GULF  
WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE FLORIDA BIG  
BEND REGION NEAR 28.5N82.5W TO 25.5N90W TO LOW PRES 1016 MB  
CENTERED NEAR 24.5N94.5W. THE FRONT THEN CURVES SW OVER THE BAY OF  
CAMPECHE TO NEAR VERACRUZ ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.  
CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE SUPPRESSING DEEP  
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CLOUDINESS, PATCHY RAIN  
AND DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH POSSESSING NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM  
23N92W TO 20N93W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE  
NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE  
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM  
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS SAT EVENING. FRESH  
TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST WINDS  
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, CAUSING NE  
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA  
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED  
BY A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. A SURFACE  
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT  
BY A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER  
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TO A BASE NEAR 12N83W. LOW-  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER  
LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE ARE COMBINING TO  
GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM  
11N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. TO THE SOUTH, THE MONSOON TROUGH  
EXTENDS E ALONG 10N TO 79W, BUT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIES OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  
SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS  
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E  
TO SE WINDS PREVAIL EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOWER  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SLOWLY LIFT N  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE  
SW CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN  
BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO A BASE NEAR 12N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALMOST ALL OF THE ISLAND. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES,  
ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING PEAK DAYTIME  
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 32N77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR  
29.5N81W, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM THE E COAST OF  
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO 24N81W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER  
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. TO THE EAST, ANOTHER  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N64W TO 22N70W IS PROVIDING THE  
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE DOMINICAN  
REPUBLIC FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A  
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N48W TO 24N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N44W  
TO 23N45W TO 26N45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH  
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N21W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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