434  
AGXX40 KNHC 100854  
MIMATS  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
354 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA,  
AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W  
AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY WSW TO NEAR 24N90W THEN TO  
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR 24.5N96W THEN CONTINUES SSE TO W  
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. 03Z SCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS AROUND  
20 KT NE OF LOW AND FRONT W OF 93W, AND NNW 20-25 KT W OF LOW AND  
FRONT TO 23.5N. WINDS GENERALLY NE 15-20 KT N OF FRONT ACROSS  
REST OF AREA. ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA SUGGEST SEAS 4-6 FT N OF  
FRONT E OF 90W AND 4-7 FT AND LIKELY BUILDING TO 8 FT ATTM W OF  
90W, AND 6-9 FT W OF FRONT ACROSS SW GULF. LOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN  
TO TROUGH AND LEAVE WAVE ALONG FRONT BY 24 HRS WHILE E PORTION  
MOVES SE TO NEAR NAPLES BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND  
AND DRIFTING N. WINDS TO FRESHEN W OF FRONT ALONG WATERS OF  
VERACRUZ TODAY AND MAINTAIN SEAS 6-9 FT THERE BEFORE GRADUALLY  
DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SUPPORTING MID LEVEL  
TROUGH DRAGGING ACROSS NRN GULF ATTM FORECAST TO INDUCE LLVL VORT  
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TOUGH INVOF 90W AND  
COMBINE WITH BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS ERN SEABOARD AND INTO  
SW N ATLC TO QUICKLY TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NE GULF BY SAT  
MORNING FOR STRONG NE WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT  
THEN VEERING E AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN WHILE TIGHT  
GRADIENT THEN SHIFT INTO SE GULF AND STRAITS, WHERE SEAS WILL  
BUILD TO 6-8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS  
FORECAST AND GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT ECMWF SHOWING PERSISTENT  
STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF NE AND SE GULF THROUGH MON AND 7-10  
FT SEAS.  
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
 
BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS ACROSS W  
CARIB CENTERED NEAR 15N78W WITH SFC LOW ANALYZED A BIT E OF THERE  
AT 76W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED FROM ERN  
SEMICIRCLE TOWARDS NW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA TODAY FOR  
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CNVTN. MODELS AND ALTIMETER DATA SUGGEST ESE  
SFC WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE SHIFTING WNW ACROSS  
N CENTRAL CARIB TOWARDS JAMAICA WHERE LONG FETCH FROM E CARIB IS  
YIELDING SEAS 7-9 FT, WHILE SCT DEEP CNVTN CONTINUES. FRESHENING  
NNE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIB TO THE W OF THE LOW WHERE  
SEAS ARE BUILDING 4-6 FT. LOW TO SHIFT W AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING W TO WSW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.  
COLD FRONT ACROSS W ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM JUST SE OF  
BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS S FL AND STALL OVER THE WEEKEND,  
WITH ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH BEHIND FRONT AND  
REMNANTS OF LOW THAT WILL SHIFT INTO W CARIB PRODUCING STRONG NE  
FLOW ACROSS NW CARIB AND LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO  
PREVAIL WITH SEAS 4-5 FT INSIDE CARIB AND 5-7 FT ACROSS TROPICAL  
N ATLC WATERS.  
   
..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 32N78W TO N CENTRAL FL TO  
THE S OF DAYTONA BEACH, WHILE INVERTED TROUGHING PERSISTS FROM  
SRN BAHAMAS NE TO NEAR 30N66W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH  
CARIB LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WNW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH  
ALL BUT NW BAHAMAS ATTM. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND REACH  
FROM 31N76W TO PALM BEACH BY 00Z SAT AND THEN STALL FROM FL KEYS  
AND NRN STRAITS TO JUST SE OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG  
HIGH PRES AND COLDEST AIR OF SEASON BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE  
STRONG NE THEN ENE WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE  
SLOWLY DIMINISHING BEHIND DISSIPATING FRONT. LINGERING TROFFING  
ACROSS N CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CARIB LOW TO PRODUCE  
SECONDARY ZONE OF TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG E TO ENE WINDS S  
OF FRONT TO GREATER ANTILLES. RESULTANT SEAS TO BUILD 7-10 FT S  
OF FRONT AND E OF BAHAMAS, AND 8-13 FT N OF FRONT.  
 

 
   
WARNINGS
 
ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE  
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT, OR BY  
TELEPHONE:  
   
GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
NONE.  
 
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
NONE.  
   
SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 
*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF  
 
NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL  
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
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