561  
AXPZ20 KNHC 100905  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1005 UTC FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
AND COOLER AIR IN EASTERN MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND  
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PRESENT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE  
ENHANCING GUSTY WINDS. ASCAT AT 0400 UTC SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS  
IN THIS AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ONLY  
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND MAX SEAS WILL REMAIN 12-15 FT.  
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS EVENT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TO 35-40 KT SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM  
09N84W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N128W 1010 MB TO 09N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND 90 NM N OF  
THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 138W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE  
ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.  
 
A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE A TROUGH WILL MEANDER ALONG THE COAST OF NW  
MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW FLOW WILL  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY, INCREASING  
TO FRESH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. LONG PERIOD  
NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9  
FT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N WEST  
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY, THEN SLOWLY DECAY AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD  
SATURDAY.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY  
TIGHTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING STRONG NW WINDS TO DEVELOP N  
OF 25N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING  
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 5 OR 6 FT  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE  
NORTH OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 09N THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT ARE  
FOUND NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N140W, WITH SEAS CURRENTLY  
8 TO 12 FT. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE  
AREA, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS N OF 15N W  
OF 115W BY TONIGHT, THEN TO NEAR 8 FT THROUGHOUT THE WATERS BY  
SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB REMAINS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH  
NEAR 10N128W, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND.  
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN  
THE LOW AND AND STRONGER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW THE TRADES TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG  
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N AND NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE,  
SUPPORTING FRESH SEAS AROUND 8-10 FT.  
 

 
MUNDELL  
 
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