439  
AXNT20 KNHC 101105  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
605 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1100 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA BISSAU ON THE AFRICAN  
COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE  
CONTINUES FROM 09N17W TO 05N29W TO 07N39W TO FRENCH GUIANA ON THE  
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN  
11W AND 26W AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE FLORIDA BIG  
BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH  
CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 27.5N83W TO 24.5N94W.  
THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO LOW PRES  
1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 24.5N96W TO 22N94.5W TO 18.5N95W. CONVERGENT  
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION  
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CLOUDINESS, PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE  
ARE THE RESULT TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE  
WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG  
N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FOR  
THE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. THE  
FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF  
WATERS SAT EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF N TO NW WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 22N.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS OVER THE  
WEEKEND AND INTRODUCE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE  
GULF, CAUSING NE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND  
FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED  
BY A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. A SURFACE  
TROUGH CURVES NNE FROM LOW PRES ON THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR  
12N75W TO THE LOW S OF JAMAICA, THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE. ANOTHER TROUGH CURVES NW FROM THE LOW S OF JAMAICA TO THE  
YUCATAN CHANNEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW  
AND TROUGH ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
CENTERED NEAR 16N81W. LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY EAST OF  
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.  
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS  
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E  
TO SE WINDS PREVAIL EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOWER  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SLOWLY LIFT N  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO LOW PRES  
CENTERED CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS  
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED FARTHER SW NEAR  
16N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT  
48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LIFE-  
THREATENING MUD SLIDES, ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS  
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 32N78W TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE  
CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO 24N81.5W  
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA  
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. TO THE EAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING  
NNE FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 29N67W IS  
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NW OF PUERTO RICO IN AN  
AREA BOUNDED BY 19N67W TO 22N67W TO 24N70W TO 20N74W TO 10N67W.  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS INDUCED A  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N48W TO 30N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD  
SURFACE RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE  
AZORES NEAR 45N21W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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