168  
AXPZ20 KNHC 101601  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
   
..GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
 
 
GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE N AND NE ARE BEING REPORTED BY  
SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ON THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES  
ARE BEHIND A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR IS IN  
EASTERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
ALREADY ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND MAXIMUN SEA HEIGHTS  
WILL RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 15 FEET. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT  
THIS EVENT WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS  
INCREASING AGAIN TO 35-40 KNOTS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W, TO  
08N95W, 10N107W, 08N116W, TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT  
IS NEAR 11N129W, TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG  
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH  
BETWEEN 108W AND 113W, WITHIN 45 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON  
TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 114W, AND WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. WIDELY SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE  
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 138W. ISOLATED  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 100W EASTWARD.  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE  
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT  
THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.  
 
A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE A TROUGH WILL MEANDER ALONG THE COAST  
OF NW MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW FLOW  
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM TODAY  
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW  
WIND FLOW FROM EARLY MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY, AND FRESH TO  
STRONG NW WIND FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FEET FROM THURSDAY MORNING  
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...N OF 25N E OF 118W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL  
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET, ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD  
FRONT, WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N  
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY, AND THEN DECAY SLOWLY AND SPREAD  
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING  
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 5 OR 6 FT  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT, ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE  
NORTH OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE FORECAST S OF 09N THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT ARE  
FOUND NW OF A LINE FROM NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 12N126W  
TO 18N140W. THE SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET.  
THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA, WITH  
SEAS 8 FEET OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W BY  
TONIGHT, THEN TO NEAR 8 FEET THROUGHOUT THE WATERS BY SUNDAY  
EVENING.  
 
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N129W, IN THE MONSOON  
TROUGH. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE  
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COMPARATIVELY HIGHER  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SITUATION MAY  
ALLOW THE TRADES TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE  
WATERS S OF 20N AND NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE, SUPPORTING  
SEA HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET.  
 

 
MT  
 
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