082  
AGXX40 KNHC 101713  
MIMATS  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1213 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA,  
AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W  
AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO A WEAKENING 1014 MB  
SURFACE LOW AT 24N96W, THEN CONTINUES STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF  
CAMPECHE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE  
OBSERVED W OF THE LOW AND SOUTHERN STATIONARY FRONT. THE LOW AND  
FRONTS WILL WEAKEN TO A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT WILL  
MEANDER ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SW OF THE  
TROUGH. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN N OF THE  
AREA, RESULTING IN STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE E GULF  
WATERS THIS EVENING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON TUE, WITH FRESH NE  
FLOW CONTINUING ONLY ACROSS THE SE WATERS, WITH MODERATE SE  
RETURN SETTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.  
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
 
BROAD DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS ACROSS THE W  
CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ANALYZED AT 15N76W AND  
ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY  
ENHANCED E OF THE LOW BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE LOW IS FORECAST  
TO DRIFT SW AND MEANDER ACROSS THE THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG A LOW  
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO  
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SW  
EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO SHIFT W ACROSS THE THE  
WATERS LEE OF E CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS  
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME A STRONG NE BREEZE  
TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN WITH FRESH N-NE  
WINDS FORECAST THEN FORECAST FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY WED.  
MODERATE E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED E OF THE 75W THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
   
..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N78W TO 28N81W WILL CONTINUE E AND  
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 31N66W TO 27N80W ON SAT. STRONG TO  
NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT, WILL  
SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND  
REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMA CHANNEL ON SAT AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A  
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS ON MON, ACCOMPANIED  
BY STRONG N WINDS, MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT, WITH  
A SINGLE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON  
TUE NIGHT.  
 
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST S OF  
BERMUDA. ABUNDANT DEBRIS MOISTURE, ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN, CONTINUES TO SHIFT W-NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE SE  
BAHAMAS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE  
STRENGTHENING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF  
STRONG E WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND  
OLD BAHAMA CHANNEL TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
WARNINGS
 
ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE  
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT, OR BY  
TELEPHONE:  
   
GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
NONE.  
 
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
NONE.  
   
SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 
*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF  
 
NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL  
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
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