405  
AXNT20 KNHC 101718  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1217 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1715 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO  
11N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 11N19W  
TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM  
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES MAINLY EAST OF 27W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN, ANALYZED AS A  
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N83W TO 25N89W TO A  
1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N96W TO 18N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED  
ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH  
FROM THE LOW TO 28N97W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS  
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW, WHILE FRESH TO  
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURES.  
EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTRODUCE A REINFORCING SHOT  
OF COLD AIR INTO THE GULF, CAUSING NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED  
BY A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N78W. A SURFACE  
TROUGH CURVES NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW TO EAST CUBA NEAR 20N75W.  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED BETWEEN  
70W-78W SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TO THE WEST, ANOTHER  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF  
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS SOUTH OF 20N  
BETWEEN 84W- 88W. SATELLITE- DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN WHILE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS  
PREVAIL EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS WEST OF THE ISLAND TO A LOW PRESSURE  
SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N78W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THIS AREA  
SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING  
MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF  
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES, ESPECIALLY IF  
STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND  
INSTABILITY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO  
28N80W. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO  
24N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN  
BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N48W TO 19N48W WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAILING ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE  
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
BASIN.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
ERA  
 
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