575  
AXNT20 KNHC 102314  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
614 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2245 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO  
11N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
11N19W TO 09N25W TO 10N37W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 06W-12W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND  
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 31W-37W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE BASIN THIS  
EVENING WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS  
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO A BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO  
NEAR THE CHIVELA PASS. WHILE THE STRONGER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL  
DYNAMICS REMAIN IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...A LINGERING STATIONARY  
FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO  
25N90W AND INTO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW. THE FRONT CONTINUES S-SE FROM  
THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. AS A STABLE  
ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND  
GENERALLY W OF 95W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
MEXICO. OVERALL MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF N-NW WINDS W OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONT  
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND  
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
GENERALLY BROAD LOWER PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR  
15N79W IN THE WESTERN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N-NE FROM  
THE LOW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY  
MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO  
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. IN ADDITION...A  
FAVORABLE DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. AS A  
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING  
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 68W-79W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PANAMA AND  
COSTA RICA GENERALLY S OF 10N. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SLOW  
TO MODIFY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE  
GULF OF MEXICO AND SW NORTH ATLC WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES E OF  
75W WILL PERSIST.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND  
THIS EVENING AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT WITHIN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NW OVER  
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND...ADJACENT  
COASTAL WATERS...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. POTENTIAL  
HAZARDS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES  
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING  
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N71W SW TO  
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE SE  
OF THE FRONT FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W TO 28N70W. WHILE ONLY  
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD  
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE  
SURFACE TROUGH AND A FAVORABLE DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE  
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-28N  
BETWEEN 64W-76W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 28N-34N  
BETWEEN 59W-66W. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM 19N50W TO 29N49W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
CENTERED NEAR 23N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE  
NOTED PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN  
42W-49W. ELSEWHERE...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A  
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES  
NEAR 44N19W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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