337  
AXNT20 KNHC 040004  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
704 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND LOWER PRESSURE  
IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-  
FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN  
74W AND 77W, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ  
THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA  
NEAR 05N09W, TO 01N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N17W, TO THE  
EQUATOR ALONG 25W, TO 02S33W, AND 03S41W. PRECIPITATION:  
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 03N  
SOUTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, ALONG 25N FROM 80W TO 95W. A SURFACE  
TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 25N  
TO 29N. PRECIPITATION: RAINSHOWERS SPAN THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE  
WATERS, AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA, AND IN  
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN  
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.  
 
THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE, FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NW  
GULF, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, WITH A WEAKENING COLD  
FRONT TRAILING IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE ON SUNDAY, MERGE WITH THE DYING  
FRONT, AND THEN STALL ALONG 24N THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT  
WILL LIFT N THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, THAT  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN ABOUT  
90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH  
TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE IN THE LEE  
OF CUBA, THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF THE  
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THE AERIAL EXTENT  
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS ON MON, AND OVER MOST OF THE EAST AND  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W, ACROSS THE NW  
BAHAMAS, TO THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND BEYOND, INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NW OF THE LINE THAT PASSES  
THROUGH 32N49W TO 18N59W.  
 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N  
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W  
FROM 20N TO 30N. PRECIPITATION: RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N  
TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.  
 
THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 26N/27N TONIGHT, THEN  
LIFT N OF THE AREA LATE SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF  
THE NE FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH  
FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING THEN  
LIFTING N THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT  
 
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