416  
AXPZ20 KNHC 050344  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
144 UTC MON FEB 5 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0245 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N81W TO 05N89W TO  
04N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 04N111W TO 07N122W  
TO 06N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION  
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ITCZ. A SURFACE  
TROUGH REACHES FROM 07N122W TO 14N121W TO 18N119W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM FROM 06N  
TO 09N BETWEEN 119W AND 124W AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 117W  
AND 124W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PULSE BETWEEN FRESH AND  
STRONG LATE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH  
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TUE AFTERNOON  
THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THEREAFTER AS  
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL  
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE A  
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER GALE FORCE  
GAP WIND MAY COMMENCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS OVER THE GULF  
WILL TAPER TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SAT NIGHT.  
 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN  
3 AND 6 FT THROUGH MON AS A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN PREVAILS. LONG  
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BEGIN BUILDING TO BETWEEN 5  
AND 7 FT ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE AND WED. SEAS IN THIS  
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THU.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
FUEGO VOLCANO IN GUATEMALA: THE VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTER  
BASED IN WASHINGTON, DC DETECTED OCCASIONAL EMISSIONS FROM THE  
SUMMIT OF THE VOLCANO EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT NO RECENT  
EMISSIONS HAVE BEEN DETECTED.  
 
NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG SPEEDS  
EACH NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEK. AREAL  
COVERAGE OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE  
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS TO PROPAGATE  
FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND MERGE WITH THE  
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI  
AND SAT.  
 
ELSEWHERE N OF 09N, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG DURING  
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL THROUGH WED  
MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH THU AND FRI. OTHERWISE,  
LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 09N  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE  
DISCUSSION AREA WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NW  
SWELL GENERATED BY A FETCH OF WINDS TO THE W OF A NEARLY  
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS  
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ARE  
GENERATING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM 10N TO 30N W OF 132W. THE  
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE AND DECAY. THE AREA OF  
COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL EVENTUALLY STRETCH FROM 10N  
TO 30N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W BY MON EVENING. THIS AREA OF SEAS  
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE NIGHT AS THE UNDERLYING NW SWELL  
CONTINUE TO DECAY.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUITE TRANQUIL WITH ONLY LIGHT  
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS BEYOND 250 NM OFFSHORE. A BROAD  
AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 07N122W TO  
14N121W TO 18N119W IS GENERATING CONVECTION BUT THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT NEAR THE TROUGH IS WEAK AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN  
NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY THU.  
 

 
CAM  
 
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