090  
AXPZ20 KNHC 050910  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
636 UTC MON FEB 5 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0845 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 01N82W TO 03N92W TO  
04N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 04N110W TO 06N120W,  
THEN RESUMES FROM 08N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. THERE IS NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE  
TROUGH AND ITCZ.  
 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT DIVIDES THE ITCZ REACHES FROM  
07N123W TO 15N122W TO 20N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 126W AND  
128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 17N  
BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: N WINDS WILL PULSE BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG  
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL EARLY  
TUE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TUE  
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN  
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE  
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC  
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER GALE  
FORCE GAP WIND MAY COMMENCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY  
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS EVENT WILL  
PEAK ON FRI MORNING AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS THAT WILL  
MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING DOWNWIND FROM THE  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MERGED AREA WILL SPREAD AS FAR S AS 06N AND  
AS FAR W AS 105W. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL TAPER TO LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE BY SAT NIGHT.  
 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN  
3 AND 6 FT THROUGH MON AS A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN PREVAILS. LONG  
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BEGIN BUILDING TO BETWEEN 5  
AND 7 FT ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE AND WED. SEAS IN THIS  
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THU. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3  
TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA FRI AND  
SAT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS  
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
FUEGO VOLCANO IN GUATEMALA: THE VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTER  
BASED IN WASHINGTON, DC DETECTED OCCASIONAL EMISSIONS FROM THE  
SUMMIT OF THE VOLCANO EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT NO RECENT  
EMISSIONS HAVE BEEN DETECTED.  
 
NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG SPEEDS  
EACH NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEK. AREAL  
COVERAGE OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE  
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS TO PROPAGATE  
FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND MERGE WITH THE  
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI  
AND SAT.  
 
ELSEWHERE N OF 09N, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG DURING  
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL THROUGH WED  
MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH THU AND FRI. OTHERWISE,  
LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 09N  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE  
DISCUSSION AREA WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NW  
SWELL GENERATED BY A FETCH OF WINDS TO THE W OF A NEARLY  
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS  
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ARE  
GENERATING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM 10N TO 30N W OF 132W. THE  
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE AND DECAY. THE AREA OF  
COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL EVENTUALLY STRETCH FROM 10N  
TO 30N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W BY MON EVENING. THIS AREA OF SEAS  
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE NIGHT AS THE UNDERLYING NW SWELL  
CONTINUE TO DECAY.  
 
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS BENIGN WITH ONLY  
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS BEYOND 250 NM OFFSHORE. A  
BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 07N122W  
TO 14N121W TO 18N119W IS GENERATING CONVECTION BUT THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT NEAR THE TROUGH IS WEAK AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN  
NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY SAT.  
 

 
CAM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page