378  
AXNT20 KNHC 052355  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 5 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2330 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE  
IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-  
FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS DURING  
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC  
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO  
03N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N19W ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE  
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT SNAKES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 25N  
AND 27N FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SEAS  
ARE 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND  
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY TUE.  
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE WED. FRESH  
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WILL FOLLOW  
THE FRONT, MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO, AS THE FRONT REACHES  
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY LATE THU, THEN  
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING  
THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG  
WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH HIGHEST  
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 11 FT OVER MUCH  
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE.  
MOSTLY DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. PATCHES  
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS SOUTH  
OF HISPANIOLA. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FRESH  
TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE  
LEE OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE  
CENTRAL ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADES EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND  
WINDWARD ISLANDS, ACCOMPANIED BY E-NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W SW TO NEAR FT LAUDERDALE FL  
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY  
FLOW IS NORTH OF 29N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT  
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 29N65W TO  
THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA TUE, THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT, SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG  
E WINDS SOUTH OF 22N THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH  
OF HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD WITHOUT MUCH CONVECTION. THE  
AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC, WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW  
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MUNDELL  
 
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