851  
AXNT20 KNHC 061758  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1258 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE  
IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL  
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST  
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02  
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO  
03N14W TO 02N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N20W ACROSS THE  
EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
PLATFORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF CONTINUE TO REPORT AREAS OF FOG,  
HOWEVER IT SHOULD CLEAR UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, A RIDGE  
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 37N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS  
FLORIDA AND THE GULF, THUS PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF  
WED NEAR SUNRISE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS  
BUILDING TO 8 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN  
GULF AND OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM  
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT  
THEN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN  
GULF FRI.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG  
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH  
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 FT  
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, AND UP TO 9 FT  
ELSEWHERE. STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, HOWEVER PATCHES  
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS SOUTH OF  
18N. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IN  
THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM 30N64W SW TO THE  
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN TO A  
SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY, THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E  
WINDS SOUTH OF 24N IN THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE  
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC WILL EXPAND  
NORTHWARD TO 25N DURING THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE TROUGH  
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO NORTH-CENTRAL  
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER  
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST-  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC, WHERE LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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