491  
AXPZ20 KNHC 070324  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC WED FEB 7 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0300 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER  
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN MEXICO, WHILE A COLD FRONT ENTERS  
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE GAP WINDS SHOULD COMMENCE OVER  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING, PEAKING  
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS TO 12-13 FT. WINDS OVER THE GULF  
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SAT NIGHT.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 00N80W TO 05N89W. THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES FROM 05N89W TO 09N125W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. ELSEWHERE, A  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N119W TO 15N123W. THIS TROUGH IS  
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N121W.  
THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NORTH OF 17N  
EAST OF 123W, WITH EMBEDDED STRATOCUMULUS SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE AREA TO NE OF  
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND  
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NW WINDS, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 6 FT. THIS FAIRLY  
QUIET PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SAT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN NW WINDS  
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT WED EVENING  
THROUGH THU. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA  
PENINSULA ON FRI AND SAT, AND S TO SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH  
WILL STRENGTHEN ON SAT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
FUEGO VOLCANO IN GUATEMALA: INTERMITTENT ERUPTIONS OF VOLCANIC  
ASH FROM THE VOLCANO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DURING THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH NIGHT OVER  
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE ENTIRE WEEK. AREAL COVERAGE OF GAP  
WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE THU AND FRI, AND  
ALLOW THE WIND GENERATED SEAS TO PROPAGATE FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM  
ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS DOWNWIND  
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI AND SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
ON SUN AND MON.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN  
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE  
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 09N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S  
TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 09N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING S BETWEEN 125W AND 140W  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NW SWELL  
GENERATED BY A FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE AREA WILL  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL  
DEVELOP FROM 15N TO 20N WEST OF 135W ON THU. FAIRLY BENIGN  
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
MUNDELL  
 
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