097  
AXNT20 KNHC 070926 CCA  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED FEB 7 2018  
 
CORRECTED HEADER TIME  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0545 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND  
LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 06N09W  
TO 03N15W TO 03N22W, WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES AND DIPS TO BELOW THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-  
28W, AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 01N32W TO 01N36W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHES  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND TO THE N CENTRAL  
GULF. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. AS OF 03Z, A WARM FRONT IS  
IS OVER EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE  
EASTERN GULF, AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN TEXAS, AND  
MOVES OUT OVER THE NW GULF BY EARLY ON WED. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE  
FOG TO AGAIN FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE  
COASTAL SECTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED  
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS  
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT, MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND OFF  
THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO  
THE SW GULF BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK  
NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI AND  
SAT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS REGARDING  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN,  
WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BE 10-16 FT  
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, AND UP TO 9 FT  
ELSEWHERE. STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE BASIN, HOWEVER PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT  
BRIEF PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF ABOUT 72W. THE CURRENT  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE, S OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N62W,  
AND REACHES TO NEAR 27N72W. WEAKEN FROM NEAR 32N64W SOUTHWESTWARD  
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A  
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG E WINDS SOUTH OF 24N IN THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC WILL  
EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 25N DURING THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE  
TROUGH IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR  
31N60W TO 25N66W TO THE COAST OF INLAND N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA  
NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF  
THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH S OF 27N  
APPEARS TO BE DIFFUSING WITH TIME. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO  
EMERGE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EARLY ON THU, AND MOVE  
ACROSS THE NW WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THU. THE COLD  
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHEASTERN  
FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS UPCOMING COLD FRONT WILL  
INDUCE FRESH NE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE RANGE OF 6-  
10 FT TO THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
DIMINISH ON FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, AND THE  
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.  
 
THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC, WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER  
DATA SHOWED MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N  
AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE GRADIENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY  
OF HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TIGHTENS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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