754  
AXNT20 KNHC 070932  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
432 AM EST WED FEB 7 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0900 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0930 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND  
LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR  
06N09W TO 02N22W TO 03N22W, WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES  
THE ITCZ CONTINUES AND DIPS TO BELOW THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS  
BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF  
A LINE FROM 01N32W TO 01N36W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHES  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND TO THE N CENTRAL  
GULF. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. AS OF 09Z, A COLD FRONT HAS  
MOVED TO JUST ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF, AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES EASTERN TEXAS, AND MOVES OUT OVER THE NW GULF BY EARLY  
ON WED. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO AGAIN FORM OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF  
TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH  
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT, MAINLY ALONG  
THE NORTHERN GULF AND OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE FRONT REACHES  
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE  
WESTERN GULF ON FRI AND SAT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS REGARDING  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN,  
WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BE 10-16 FT  
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, AND UP TO 9 FT  
ELSEWHERE. STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE BASIN, HOWEVER PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT  
BRIEF PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF ABOUT 72W. THE CURRENT  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE, S OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N62W TO  
29N66W, WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  
THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS  
SOUTH OF 24N IN THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THU  
NIGHT. THESE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 25N  
DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION  
FROM NEAR 30N60W TO 25N66W TO NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. THE PORTION  
OF THE TROUGH S OF 27N APPEARS TO BE DIFFUSING WITH TIME. A COLD  
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EARLY  
ON THU, AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA  
DURING THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR  
BERMUDA TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS  
UPCOMING COLD FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS  
BUILDING TO THE RANGE OF 6-10 FT TO THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND  
FRI. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
SHIFTS EASTWARD, AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK  
TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.  
 
THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC, WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER  
DATA SHOWED MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE WATERS S OF 22N  
AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE GRADIENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY  
OF HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TIGHTENS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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