003  
AXNT20 KNHC 080005  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED FEB 7 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC  
OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF  
COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-  
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE  
FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED: MADEIRA. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED AT 32N10W, TO INLAND THE COAST  
OF MOROCCO NEAR 28N12W, TO 26N20W AND NW TO 29N28W. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF THE COLD FRONT.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF  
LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N14W TO 02N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM  
02N20W, CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W, TO 03S34W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-20W.  
 
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 21Z, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF PENSACOLA TO 28N92W  
AND TO 26N95W, WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND FAR NORTHERN  
MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 28N89W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF  
THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID  
AND UPPER BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS MOVING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE  
NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
OVER THE FAR NW GULF.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,  
THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 25N ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT  
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON  
SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT, AND PERSIST NEAR  
VERACRUZ THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN S OF 20N W OF 84W, AND ALSO FROM  
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS, TO BELIZE, AND PARTS OF GUATEMALA, IN  
AREAS OF WESTWARD MOVING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF 75W IN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD.  
 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES TO MINIMAL  
GALE-FORCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG  
TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
SEA, INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH FRI. THESE  
CONDITIONS THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN  
SEA AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE  
WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE EAST SWELL, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH SUN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ARE NOTED E OF THE BAHAMAS.  
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IS N OF 26N W OF 71W,  
AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N42W 25N43W 32N44W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND  
50W.  
 
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT GENERALLY BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.  
 
THE CURRENT NW GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF  
THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT, AND THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO  
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 22N BEGINNING  
LATE ON FRI NIGHT.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT/AGUIRRE  
 
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