349  
AXNT20 KNHC 080603  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
103 AM EST THU FEB 8 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0545 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC  
OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE  
COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-  
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE  
FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED: MADEIRA. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED AT 31N09W, TO ACROSS EASTERN  
MOROCCO AND TO ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WESTERN  
SAHARA, AND OUT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 24N20W. BROKEN  
TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT,  
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF  
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W,  
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W, TO 03S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-20W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 03Z, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF APALACHICOLA TO  
27N90W TO 25N95W TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF APALACHICOLA TO 28N86W TO 26N88W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF  
THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT S OF  
29N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER BROKEN TO  
OVERCAST CLOUDS MOVING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL  
GULF. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE UNDERNEATH  
THESE CLOUDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE NW GULF AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW GULF. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03Z  
LAST NIGHT HIGHLIGHTED NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,  
THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 25N ON THU. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT  
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE  
SUN. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, AND PERSIST  
NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH EARLY ON FRIDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN S OF 20N W OF 84W, AND ALSO FROM  
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS, TO BELIZE, AND PARTS OF GUATEMALA, IN  
AREAS OF WESTWARD MOVING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS  
CONCENTRATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO  
E OF 75W IN PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING QUICKLY  
WESTWARD.  
 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES TO MINIMAL  
GALE-FORCE ALONG AND NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE NORTH  
CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH FRI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT  
NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE  
EAST SWELL, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH SUN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ARE NOTED E OF THE BAHAMAS.  
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IS N OF 26N W OF 71W,  
AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.  
 
AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM  
26N21W TO 26N32W TO 32N43W. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING  
WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ARE NOTED FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN  
40W AND 50W.  
 
THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING  
EXTENDING FROM A 1040 MB HIGH CENTER, THAT IS LOCATED WELL N OF  
THE AREA JUST TO THE SW OF THE AZORES, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  
32N55W AND TO NEAR 29N79W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS JUST ABOUT THE  
ENTIRE BASIN, EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION NEAR THE COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE  
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT  
EXTENDS OUT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE WESTERN SAHARA TO  
NEAR 24N20W. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS QUICKLY DROPPING  
SOUTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS. BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING  
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STRONG NE FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE  
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF ABOUT 19N AND E OF  
40W. LATEST ASCAT DATA DEPICTED STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THIS  
AREA OF THE ATLANTIC.  
 
THE PRESENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE  
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO SE TONIGHT.  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG N ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON FRI ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO INCREASE  
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WATERS S OF 23N GOING INTO SAT.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
AGUIRRE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page