146  
AXPZ20 KNHC 080910  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1005 UTC THU FEB 8 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS  
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE  
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS, PEAKING BY EARLY FRI  
WITH SEAS TO 13-15 FT. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE BY SAT AFTERNOON.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 09N133W TO 13N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A  
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING  
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. A  
FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. NW SWELL  
OF 7-8 FT WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA  
NORTE ON SUNDAY.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI AND SAT, AND S TO SW WINDS E OF  
THE TROUGH N OF 29N WILL STRENGTHEN ON SAT IN ADVANCE OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG  
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAL COVERAGE OF GAP WINDS NEAR  
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AND  
ALLOW THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS TO PROPAGATE FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM  
ITS SOURCE REGION, MERGING WITH THE SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF  
OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI AND SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUN AND MON.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL NORTH  
OF 09N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL  
S OF 09N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N124W TO 17N122W. A  
DISSIPATING UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING AREAS OF EMBEDDED ISOLATED  
SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W.  
 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF 30N AND LOWER PRESSURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADE  
WINDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF 135W AND N OF 18N  
THROUGH FRI, ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING  
W OF 140W. SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FT IN WESTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
 
MUNDELL  
 
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