014  
AXNT20 KNHC 081205  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU FEB 8 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1100 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC  
OCEAN, AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE  
COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA  
NEAR 06N10W, AND IT CURVES THROUGH 06N15W TO 04N18W. THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES FROM 04N18W, CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W, TO 02N30W,  
AND TO 03S35W. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD  
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, INTO THE  
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NW OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE  
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL STALL FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO  
23N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF THE  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS ON FRI, AND  
THEN DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS ON FRI  
NIGHT INTO SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST  
LATE SUN, AND STALL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY  
OF CAMPECHE ON MON.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA, THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC  
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA, AND BELIZE. PRECIPITATION:  
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO  
22N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W, COVERING PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA,  
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND PARTS OF THE SW CORNER  
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE  
FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 71W, AND ELSEWHERE, SPREAD  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THAT ARE LISTED FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED  
AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.31 IN  
CURACAO, AND 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.  
 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES TO  
MINIMAL GALE-FORCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH-  
TO-STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH  
FRIDAY. THESE STRONG CONDITIONS THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS, AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
THE TROPICAL WATERS NORTH OF 11N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN  
20W AND THE SE U.S.A. A 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR  
37N33W.  
 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR  
23N16W TO 21N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS  
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY AND  
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY ON FRIDAY. REMNANTS  
OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE  
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATE ON MONDAY. FRESH  
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE  
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
THEN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THAT  
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BY LATE SATURDAY.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT  
 
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