946  
AXPZ20 KNHC 082129  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2128 UTC THU FEB 8 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2045 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS  
SETUP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE IN POSITION TO THE NORTH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL  
RANGE. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AS  
CONFIRMED BY A 1530 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE GALE-FORCE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
THROUGH TONIGHT, PEAKING BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS TO 13-15 FT. THE  
GALE WILL END AROUND SUNRISE FRI. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SAT AFTERNOON.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 04N96W. THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES FROM 04N96W TO 08N130W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THESE FEATURES.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A  
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING  
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5-7 FT. A  
FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE  
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NW SWELL OF 7-8 FT THAT WILL REACH THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN THROUGH MON.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI AND SAT, AND S TO SW WINDS E OF  
THE TROUGH N OF 29N WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG ON SAT IN  
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW  
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND WILL THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT SUN  
NIGHT.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 23N109W IS SUPPORTING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA PAZ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG  
EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAL COVERAGE OF GAP WINDS  
NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING  
AND ALLOW THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS TO PROPAGATE FURTHER DOWNWIND  
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, MERGING WITH THE SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI AND SAT. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN  
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SUN, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ONCE AGAIN FOR MON AND TUE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL NORTH  
OF 09N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL  
S OF 09N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF 30N AND LOWER  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SUPPORT  
MODERATE TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF 135W AND N OF 18N THROUGH FRI,  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING W OF 140W.  
SEAS WILL BE 7-9 FT IN THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ON SUN, A BATCH OF NW SWELL OF 8-9 FT  
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS S OF 30N AND  
WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 27N AND AS FAR W AS 130W BY MON MORNING.  
 

 
LATTO  
 
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