286  
AXNT20 KNHC 090003  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
703 PM EST THU FEB 8 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC  
OCEAN, AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE  
COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER  
SECTIONS OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST NEAR 05N08W, AND IT  
EXTENDS TO 01N20W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE  
ITCZ BEGINS AND DIPS TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 23W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS  
BETWEEN 07W-09W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N  
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-12W, AND WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS  
BETWEEN 11W-12W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 21Z, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N86W, THEN TO 22N90W AND TO 22N92W, WHERE IT  
BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TO  
INLAND MEXICO AT 19N92W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH THEM CONCENTRATED OVER THE  
SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF RAIN ARE ELSEWHERE W OF  
89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR  
N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO ALONG THE  
COAST OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN  
MEXICO.  
 
THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM SW FLORIDA, TO 23N95W, INTO  
THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY  
FRI. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE ON  
SUNDAY, AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI  
DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE  
NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, THE EASTERN PART OF  
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA, AND  
BELIZE. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED  
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO,  
FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 95W, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO  
22N BETWEEN 80W AND 96W, COVERING PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA,  
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND PARTS OF THE SW CORNER  
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE SEEN N OF 15N AND W OF 83W, S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-74W AND  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS  
ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.  
 
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THAT ARE LISTED FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED  
AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 3.31 IN  
CURACAO, AND 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.  
 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES TO  
MINIMAL GALE-FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH FRI.  
THESE STRONG CONDITIONS THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS, AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
TROPICAL WATERS NORTH OF 11N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N76W SOUTHWESTWARD TO INLAND  
FLORIDA NEAR FORT PIERCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NW  
OF A LINE FROM 32N60W, TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  
 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN  
AFRICA AND THE SE U.S.A. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1038 MB HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N35W.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM  
BERMUDA TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY ON FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF THE  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH  
OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE ON MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN  
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACH TO THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
THEN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS S OF  
23N BY LATE SAT.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT/AGUIRRE  
 
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