935  
AXPZ20 KNHC 090344  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
344 UTC FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0300 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS  
SETUP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE IN POSITION TO THE N OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL  
RANGE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN BLOWING OFFSHORE OF  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRI  
AS THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. SEAS WILL PEAK TO 14 FT OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY SAT  
EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEREAFTER THROUGH MON.  
PLEASE REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT MAY BE  
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N89W. THE ITCZ AXIS  
EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 04N100W TO 06N120W TO 09N140W. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A  
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG  
AND OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING GENTLE  
TO MODERATE NW WINDS, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT. A FAIRLY QUIET  
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW SWELL OF 7-8 FT THAT WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN THROUGH MON.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI AND SAT, AND S TO SW WINDS E OF  
THE TROUGH AND N OF 29N WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG BY  
SAT EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND WILL THEN DECREASE TO BELOW  
20 KT SUN EVENING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A PAIR OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE ARE  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA PAZ. THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG  
EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAL COVERAGE OF GAP WINDS  
NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING  
AND ALLOW THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS TO PROPAGATE FURTHER DOWNWIND  
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, MERGING WITH THE SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI AND SAT. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN  
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SUN, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ONCE AGAIN FOR MON AND  
TUE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL N OF  
09N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S  
OF 09N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF 30N AND LOWER  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SUPPORT  
MODERATE TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 16N AND W OF 136W THROUGH SAT,  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING W OF 140W.  
SEAS WILL BE 7-9 FT IN THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.  
 
ON SUN, A BATCH OF NW SWELL OF 8-9 FT ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE OF 30N, AND WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 27N  
AND AS FAR W AS 130W BY MON MORNING.  
 

 
LEWITSKY  
 
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