262  
AXNT20 KNHC 090605  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0545 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC  
OCEAN, AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE  
COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER  
SECTIONS OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST NEAR 05N08W, AND IT  
EXTENDS TO 02N19W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE  
ITCZ BEGINS AND DIPS TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 23W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS  
BETWEEN 08W-12W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 03Z, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N86W, TO 23N91W AND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF  
CAMPECHE AND TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N93W. A TROUGH JUST W OF THE  
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N93W NORTHWESTWARD TO 22N95W. LATEST  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE DENOTED AS MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS UNDERNEATH THEM CONCENTRATED OVER THE SW GULF.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH PATCHES  
OF RAIN ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE  
EASTERN GULF.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER  
OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD MANTE, CONTINUES TO SURGE  
SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE  
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE  
ON SUNDAY, AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI  
DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE  
NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, THE EASTERN PART OF  
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA, AND  
BELIZE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE SEEN N OF 15N AND W OF 83W, S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-74W  
AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.  
 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN, EXCEPT FOR NOCTURNAL PULSES TO MINIMAL  
GALE- FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA,  
INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING  
SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NORTH OF 11N THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
AS OF 03Z, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N71W SOUTHWESTWARD TO  
NEAR 28N77W, WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR  
STUART. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ARE NOTED WEST OF 71W,  
AND FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W-62W. ISOLATED SMALL THUNDERSTORM  
CELLS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N52W TO 26N53W TO 29N53W.  
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY BROAD CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  
 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN  
AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A NEARLY STATIONARY  
1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N35W WITH A RIDGE  
AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 32N52W AND TO NEAR 31N62W. HIGH  
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA E OF THE FRONT, WHILE A NEW AREA OF  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY  
OF THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH  
THAT RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE NE FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD  
TODAY.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM  
BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA EARLY TODAY. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL  
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE  
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF  
THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE ON MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF  
HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE  
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN WILL SUPPORT  
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS S OF 23N BY LATE SAT.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
AGUIRRE  
 
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