817  
AXPZ20 KNHC 090934  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
934 UTC FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS  
SETUP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE IN POSITION TO THE N OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL  
RANGE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN BLOWING OFFSHORE OF  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS  
THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. SEAS WILL PEAK TO 13 FT OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY  
SAT EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEREAFTER THROUGH MON.  
PLEASE REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOOKING  
AHEAD, ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N89W. THE ITCZ AXIS  
EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 06N120W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS NOTED.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A  
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG  
AND OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING GENTLE  
TO MODERATE NW WINDS, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT. A FAIRLY QUIET  
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION WILL BE NW SWELL OF 7-8 FT THAT WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN THROUGH TUE.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT, AND S TO SW WINDS E OF THE  
TROUGH AND N OF 29N WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG BY SAT  
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT  
TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND WILL THEN DECREASE SUN EVENING.  
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG  
WINDS N OF 29N AHEAD OF IT.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A PAIR OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE ARE  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA PAZ. THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG  
EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE GAP  
WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE INCREASED AND ARE ALLOWING  
THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS TO PROPAGATE FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM ITS  
SOURCE REGION, MERGING WITH THE SEAS DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF  
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SUN, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ONCE AGAIN FOR MON AND TUE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL N OF  
09N, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S  
OF 09N, EXCEPT PULSING N WINDS TO FRESH DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF  
PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH SAT MORNING.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF 30N AND LOWER  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SUPPORT  
MODERATE TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
N OF 17N AND W OF 136W THROUGH SAT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING W OF 140W. SEAS WILL BE 7-9 FT IN THE  
WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.  
 
ON SUN, A BATCH OF NW SWELL OF 8-9 FT ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE OF 30N, AND WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 27N  
AND AS FAR W AS 130W BY MON MORNING.  
 

 
LEWITSKY  
 
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