917  
AXNT20 KNHC 091203  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
703 AM EST FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1115 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER  
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
WINDS PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF  
COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE  
READ LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE LIBERIA AND THE IVORY  
COAST NEAR 05N09W AND EXTENDS TO 02N15W, WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA  
INDICATES THE ITCZ BEGINS. THE ITCZ AXIS DIPS BELOW THE EQUATOR  
AROUND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN  
THE EQUATOR AND 3N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, WESTWARD  
TO 25N90W AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
A TROUGH LIES NEAR THE COAST AND TEXAS ALONG 96W. THE LATEST  
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE S OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-95W.  
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING  
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, THE STATIONARY  
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUNDAY, AND THEN BECOME  
STATIONARY FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF  
CAMPECHE ON MONDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
 
MID- TO-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE NW  
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, THE EASTERN PART OF THE  
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA, AND BELIZE.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE SEEN N OF 15N AND W OF 83W, S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-74W AND OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE  
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD IN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.  
 
THE ONGOING STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY, AND NOCTURNAL PULSES TO MINIMAL  
GALE-FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST DURING THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE NORTH-  
CENTRAL PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NORTH OF 11N THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N69W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR  
29N75W, WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO NEAR STUART,  
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 70W.  
SIMILAR ACTIVITY LIES NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM 22N60W  
TO 29N62W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, A NEARLY  
STATIONARY 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N34W  
WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
IS FORECAST TO STALL AND WEAKEN FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTHEASTERN  
FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY LATE MONDAY.  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG  
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT  
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N BY LATE SATURDAY.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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