109  
AXNT20 KNHC 091718  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1218 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1700 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE  
OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS  
PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST  
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02  
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 05N09W  
AND EXTENDS TO 03N14W, WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE  
ITCZ BEGINS. THE ITCZ AXIS DIPS BELOW THE EQUATOR AROUND 24W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND  
4N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A WARM FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY, GENERALLY NORTH OF  
25N BETWEEN 84W-89W. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, A  
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN STATIONARY WITH ITS AXIS LOCATED ABOUT 120  
N MI OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER  
ACTIVITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE,  
AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED.  
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS  
ARE FROM THE EAST AND MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE  
AREA, EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE  
STRONGER. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY, AND  
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY  
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGES  
INDICATE THAT ONLY PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE  
REGION. THIS FAIR WEATHER IS SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD DRY AIR  
ALOFT, AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE  
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AREA-WIDE, AND THEY ARE PULSING TO GALE FORCE  
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF  
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, AND A RESULT, STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OF ABOUT 80W.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHICH ENTERS THE  
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF  
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ABOUT 180 N MI NORTH  
OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND  
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER  
IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR  
ITS AXIS, WHICH IS LOCATED FROM 29N63W TO 24N65W. FARTHER EAST, AN  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A LARGE  
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALOFT FROM 10-20N BETWEEN 25W-45W, BUT MOST OF  
THIS IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE, A 1039 MB HIGH  
LOCATED NEAR 37N34W DOMINATES THE PATTERN AND IS PRODUCING A  
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE  
EAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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