559
AXPZ20 KNHC 132028
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 13 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 07N95W TO 10N102W
TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N114W 1010 MB TO 05N120W TO ANOTHER 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N130W TO 08N136W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 92W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND
127W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS THROUGH MON
NIGHT. THEN, WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON TUE,
AS HIGH PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT BUILDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS WILL BE
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY WED, AND BUILD TO 6-8 FT
AFTERWARD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY N OF 30N TONIGHT,
AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NW TO N AT
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST
OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 8N-9N, WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
FLOW N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7
FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS BEGINING ON TUE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W, SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS OF RECENT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E, IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13.5N130W WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW IS CLEARLY EXPOSED, AND WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW COVERING THE WATERS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO ITS N BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. THE LOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING SEAS WITH PEAK VALUES OF UP 10 FT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS 22N BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECAYING BELOW
8 FT BY TONIGHT.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON THROUGH NEAR 11N114W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT
180 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE LOW SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
GR
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