182
AXPZ20 KNHC 132125
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 13 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 07N95W TO 10N102W
TO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N114W TO 05N120W TO ANOTHER 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 13N130W TO 08N136W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N E OF 92W TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
114W AND 127W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS THROUGH MON
NIGHT. THEN, WINDS AREA FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON TUE,
AS HIGH PRESSURE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT BUILDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY WED, AND BUILD TO 6-8 FT
AFTERWARD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY N OF 30N TONIGHT,
AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NW TO N AT
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 8N-9N, WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
FLOW N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7
FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS BEGINING ON TUE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N136W, SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS OF RECENT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E, IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13N130W WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW IS CLEARLY EXPOSED, AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS INDICATES MODERATE N-NE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 21O NM NW
QUADRANT OF LOW. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT
OF LOW BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO ITS N BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING SEAS WITH PEAK VALUES OF UP 10 FT IS
AFFECTING THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 117W AND 136W.
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA CONFIRMED THESE SEA HEIGHTS. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON THROUGH NEAR 11N114W. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE LOW SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST DIRECTION.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page