348
AXPZ20 KNHC 140322
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 14 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N79W
TO 07N93W TO 08N100W, AND NORTHWESTWARD FROM THERE TO A 1009 MB
LOW AT 12N115W. IT CONTINUES TO 05N120W TO 05N130W, WHERE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO
BEYOND THE AREA AT 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W, AND
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY WED, AND BUILD TO
6-8 FT AFTERWARDS.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30N TO
31N WEST OF 114W. THESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON
NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
INSTANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N ON TUE NIGHT.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON MORNING TILL EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT GENTLE TO MODERATE
SPEEDS MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE MORNINGS TILL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS DURING TUE AND WED.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT AS LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 8N-9N, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WED.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N138W, SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS OF RECENT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E, IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13N130W WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. THE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
THE LOW IS CLEARLY EXPOSED, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. A
SWIRL OF LOW-CLOUDS AROUND THE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
SEAS TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE
QUADRANT, AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATE ON TUE, WHILE
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
NORTH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING SEAS WITH PEAK VALUES OF UP 10 FT IS
AFFECTING THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 117W AND 136W.
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA CONFIRMED THESE SEA HEIGHTS. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON THROUGH NEAR 11N114W. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE LOW SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST DIRECTION.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page