534
AXPZ20 KNHC 140400
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 14 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N79W
TO 07N93W TO 08N100W, AND NORTHWESTWARD FROM THERE TO A 1009 MB
LOW AT 12N115W. IT CONTINUES TO 05N120W TO 05N130W, WHERE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO
BEYOND THE AREA AT 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W
AND 92W, AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS BRINGING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY WED, AND BUILD TO
6-8 FT AFTERWARDS.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30N TO
31N WEST OF 114W. THESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON
NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
INSTANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N ON TUE NIGHT.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS MON MORNING TILL EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT GENTLE TO MODERATE
SPEEDS MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE MORNINGS TILL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE AND WED.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER SET OF LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT AS LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL REACHES THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 8N-9N, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WED.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N138W, SOUTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE, REMNANTS OF RECENT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E, IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13N130W
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. THE SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS CLEARLY EXPOSED, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE
NW QUADRANT AND 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. A SWIRL OF LOW-CLOUDS
AROUND THE CENTER IS EVIDENT ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OVER THE
AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE PRESENT WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT, AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH LATE ON TUE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, AND WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.
DECAYING NORTHWEST SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. SEAS THERE ARE PEAKING
UP TO 9 FT. AS THE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO MINIMIZE, EXPECT
THESE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS INDUCED BY MIXED SWELL IS FORECAST TO
MATERIALIZE BY EARLY ON MON FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND
134W, AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W AND ALSO FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W BY LATE MON NIGHT. THESE AREAS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE AND THE 8 FT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON THROUGH NEAR 12N115W. THE LOW IS AT THE BASE OF
BROAD NE TO SW ALIGNED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT COVERS THE AREA
FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. DEEP
CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW, AND IS
IDENTIFIED AS THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N112W AND ALSO
WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N114W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO AT 16N99W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 14N111W WHERE IT IS
INTERRUPTED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR 21N113W TO 13N116W. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ARE KEEPING THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, FOR THE TIME BEING. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS, THE LOW SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS
IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
AGUIRRE
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