142
AXPZ20 KNHC 142143
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 14 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2015 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 10.5N86W TO
10N89W TO 06.5N106W TO 11.5N114W TO 03N130W, THEN TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ FROM 03N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM N AND 360 NM S OF
TROUGH FROM 78W TO 111W, AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH FROM 111W TO 122W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND THEN BECOME FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WED NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
MORNING ALTIMETER DATA INDICATED THAT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE AND WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY ON WED TO 6-8 FT IN MIXED SW SWELL AND FRESH
NNW WIND SWELL.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: S TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 29N THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR A FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 24N TO 26N TUE EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: LIGHT NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF REGION THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME SW TO W TONIGHT AS BROAD
AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
FURTHER SW INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, AND WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO BECOME VARIABLE, AND
MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAY, AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT TODAY
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON TUE TO 4-5 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. A
STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGIONAL WATERS BEGINNING WED, AND BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT THU
THROUGH SAT.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AXIS MEANDER ROUGHLY ALONG
10N, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WED.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW WATERS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE SOUTH IS PRESENTLY WEAK,
AND YIELDING MODERATE NE TO E TRADEWINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 10N AND
22N TO THE WEST OF 110W. SEAS ACROSS THIS TRADEWIND BELT ARE
EXPECTED 7-9 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE THROUGH WED AND
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE TRADEWIND BELT EVER SO SLIGHTLY BEFORE
NEW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THU AND INCREASES TRADEWINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7-9 FT THU INTO FRI.
DECAYING NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 126W, WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 7-8
FT. EXPECT SEAS W OF 117W TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU.
STRIPLING
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