662
AXPZ20 KNHC 150930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 15 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO 09N94W TO 09N100W TO 14N110W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
11N116W 1010 MB TO 07N122W TO 04N129W, WHERE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
03N154W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 111W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH AND 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
114W AND 119W, ALSO WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
86W AND 90W AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND
100W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING FRESH NW
WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH WED, THEN INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WED NIGHT
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. ALTIMETER DATA FROM LAST
NIGHT INDICATED THAT SEAS WERE JUST BELOW 8 FT, IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE. THEY WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BUILDING
SLIGHTLY ON WED TO 6-8 FT IN SW SWELL MIXED WITH FRESH NNW WIND
SWELL.
THE GRADIENT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN MORE THAN
WHAT IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS OFFSHORE
MOST OF THE PENINSULA TO INCREASE TO STRONG SPEEDS BEGINNING
LATE WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH SEAS REMAINING AT 6-8 FT.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU NIGHT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: S TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 KT OVER A
SMALL SECTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30N TO
30.5N W OF 113W WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED
EVENING.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE S TO SW IN
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE FRESH N TO NE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING, THEN BECOME GENTLE S TO SW WINDS
ON WED AFTERNOON. THIS CYCLE OF CHANGING WINDS WILL REPEAT
THROUGH THU AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER MEXICO.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO 4-5 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL AS A WEAK
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS BEGINNING
WED, AND BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT THU THROUGH SAT.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 09N/10N, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI, THEN BUILD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 6-8 FT SAT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW WATERS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE SOUTH IS PRESENTLY WEAK,
AND YIELDING MODERATE NE-E TRADES BETWEEN ABOUT 10N AND 22N TO
THE WEST OF 110W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA OF TRADES ARE 6-8 FT,
AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED, WITH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORECAST TO INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF TRADES ACROSS
THE TROPICS. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA,
WITH AND EVEN TIGHTER GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO TRADES INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7-9
FT THU INTO FRI.
THE LOW 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALONG WITH CONVECTION APPEARS EVEN MORE ILL-
DEFINED THAN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AS SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOW FROM THE E AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THE MODELS DEPICT THE
LOW MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST MOTION THROUGH FRI
WHILE IT WEAKENS.
DECAYING NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 21N
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 117W, WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 7-8
FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU.
AGUIRRE
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