311
AXPZ20 KNHC 152206
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 15 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N76W TO 09.5N87W TO
08N96W TO 13N114W TO 07N122W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO 04N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 113W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.
..DISCUSSION
...TODAY, MAY 15, MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2018 NORTHEAST
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING FRESH NW TO N
WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. ALTIMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED
THAT SEAS WERE SUBSIDING TO JUST BELOW 8 FT, AND REMAIN IN THE 5-
7 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY WED THROUGH THU TO 6-8 FT AS THE WINDS
FRESHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NW
ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-5 FT PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL. A STRONG PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS BEGINNING WED, AND BUILD SEAS
TO 5-7 FT THU THROUGH SAT.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 09N/10N, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS LATE WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI, THEN
BUILD SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 6-8 FT SAT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1020 MB HIGH HAS SETTLE ACROSS THE N WATERS NEAR 29N124W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ TO THE SOUTH IS PRESENTLY WEAK, AND YIELDING MODERATE
NE-E TRADES BETWEEN ABOUT 09N AND 22N TO THE WEST OF 115W. SEAS
ACROSS THIS AREA OF TRADES ARE 6-8 FT, AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH THU. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WED, WITH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO INDUCE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OF TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA, AND TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 7-9 FT THU INTO FRI.
DECAYING NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 21N
W OF 118W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE S THROUGH SE OF THE HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE RIDGE REORGANIZES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
MODESTLY AS DISCUSSED TO THE E OF 122W THROUGH THU, WHILE LITTLE
CHANGE OCCURS TO THE W OF 122W.
STRIPLING
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