071
AXPZ20 KNHC 160902 AAA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0902 UTC WED MAY 16 2018
UPDATED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS PANAMA AND TO 10N92W TO 10N105W TO 10N116W TO 06N128W,
WHERE IT ENDS. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 07N123W AND ENDS AT
04N132W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH SOUTH OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF TROUGH BETWEEN
111W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 112W AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
113W AND 117W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING FRESH NW TO N
WINDS OVER THOSE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE, AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BUILDING
SLIGHTLY WED THROUGH THU TO 6-8 FT AS THE WINDS FRESHEN ACROSS
THESE WATERS.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 26N THROUGH EARLY THU.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-6 FT OVER THE GULF AND NEARBY WATERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU, THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
REACHING 7 FT THU NIGHT AND TO 6-8 FT BEGINNING LATE ON SAT
IN RESPONSE TO A PRONOUNCED PULSE OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL, BUILDING TO 5-7 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SWELL
REACHES THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 09N/10N, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BEGINNING WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRI. WAVE MODE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE SEAS THEN BUILD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 6-8 FT SAT.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE AND INLAND THE
COAST OF GUATEMALA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 28N125W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
TROPICS IS RATHER WEAK ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO AT TIME FRESH
NE-E TRADES FROM 09N TO 22N AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS ACROSS THIS
AREA OF TRADES ARE 6-8 FT, AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT,
WITH THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO INDUCE A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THU THROUGH FRI. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS TRADES FROM 09N
TO 18N WEST OF ABOUT 125W ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 9 FT. N OF 22N, SEAS ARE 5-6 FT WEST OF 118W AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRI, EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOME DURING FRI AS LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL COMBINES WITH NW SWELL.
AGUIRRE
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