744
AXPZ20 KNHC 161603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 16 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N78W TO 08N83W
TO 08N108W TO 10N117W TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR
07N126W AND CONTINUE TO 06N131W THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 04N135W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH EAST OF 117W AND WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 15N EAST OF 103W, FROM 01N TO
05N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W, AND FROM 06N TO 09N WEST OF 138W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW TO SE ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PRODUCING FRESH NW TO N
WINDS NORTH OF 23N. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-
7 FT RANGE, AND WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
TO 6-8 FT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. FRESH NW ONSHORE
WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N
THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
29N TO 31N WEST OF 113W AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT
EARLY FRI.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH MON AS A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT OVER THE GULF AND NEARBY WATERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT INCREASING WAVE ACTION ALONG THOSE
COASTS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVE MODE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ON MON.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 28N126W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
TROPICS IS RATHER WEAK ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO AT TIME FRESH NE-
E TRADES WEST OF 138W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA OF TRADES ARE 6-8
FT, AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. N OF 22N, SEAS ARE 5-6
FT WEST OF 118W AND ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY
FRI, EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA THE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME DURING FRI AS LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL
COMBINES WITH NW SWELL.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page