064  
AXPZ20 KNHC 162157  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC WED MAY 16 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2015 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N78W TO 08N84W  
TO 10N95W TO 09N110W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12.5N117W TO  
06N127W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N127W AND CONTINUE TO  
05N133W THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 03N137W AND  
CONTINUES BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF  
93W AND BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF  
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12.5N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NW QUADRANT OF SAME LOW PRESSURE AND  
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE  
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, THUS  
SUPPORTING FRESH NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF 23N. THESE WINDS WILL  
INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND THU  
EVENING AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS OVER THESE  
WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE, AND WILL BUILD TO 8 FT AT NIGHT  
TODAY AND THU.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE  
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF FROM  
29N TO 31N WEST OF 113W AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT  
EARLY FRI.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK PRESSURE  
PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF  
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS  
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND  
NEARBY WATERS THROUGH TUE.  
 
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST  
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,  
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF  
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT INCREASING WAVE ACTION ALONG THOSE  
COASTS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH  
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH  
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL  
AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW  
SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODE GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT THESE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ON MON AND WILL SUBSIDE TUE.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N125W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS  
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE  
TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADES WEST OF  
114W BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 105 NM NW QUADRANT OF A  
1011 MB LOW NEAR 12.5N117W AND WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF A SURFACE  
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 02S137W. LATEST ALTIMETER  
DATA SHOW SEAS UP TO 8 FT IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SEAS  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THIS AREA OF TRADES ARE 6-7 FT, INCREASING TO 8  
FT IN SW SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page