413
AXPZ20 KNHC 171604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 17 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS REACHES FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W TO 09N109W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N119W TO 06N131W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 06N131W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
EAST OF 105W...WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF
106W AND WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 107W AND 112W, AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE ROUGHLY 5 TO 6 FT. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRI AND SAT CLIPPING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, THUS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AT NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE NW FLOW WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH A COMPONENT OF
SW SWELL.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND
NEARBY WATERS THROUGH TUE.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT BIG WAVES ALONG THOSE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THESE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ON MON AND WILL SUBSIDE MON
NIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
FARTHER SOUTH, 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N118W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE NOTED NORTH
OF 20N WITHIN THE RIDGE, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH, SEAS OF 7 TO
8 FT IN A NEW GROUP OF SW SWELL ARE REACHING THE EQUATOR.
RAMOS
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