971
AXPZ20 KNHC 180304
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 UTC FRI MAY 18 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11N122W TO 08N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENT
ZONE CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERER MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE
AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH A COMPONENT OF SW SWELL, AND 5 TO 7
FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE TODAY
BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT CLIPS
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THEREAFTER THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
MON MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING.
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. VARIABLE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 4 FT WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE
THROUGH TUE.
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN SW SWELL IS ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 8
FT MON MORNING AND SUBSIDING TUE.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND
NEARBY WATERS THROUGH TUE.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT BIG WAVES ALONG THOSE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THESE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT SUN NIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE ON
TUE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N137W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE TROPICS, A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N122W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM OF NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
PRESSURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
20N, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND 20N, ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOGA/TAO
BUOYS ARE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATE IS ALSO SHOWING
SOUTHERLY CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT REINFORCING SW IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE NEXT THE 36 HOURS.
CHRISTENSEN
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