963
AXPZ20 KNHC 180911
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
911 UTC FRI MAY 18 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11N121W TO 08N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WITH A COMPONENT OF SW SWELL, AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE TODAY BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO
AND PUNTA EUGENIA AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT CLIPS BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEREAFTER
THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE
MORNING.
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL
PULSE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. VARIABLE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WITH SEAS TO 4 FT WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE.
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN SW SWELL IS ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 8
FT MON MORNING AND SUBSIDING TUE.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND
NEARBY WATERS THROUGH TUE.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT BIG WAVES ALONG THOSE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUILDING TO 8 FT SUN
NIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N139W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IN THE
TROPICS, A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 11N121W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 120W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF 20N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TOGA/TAO BUOYS ARE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATE IS ALSO
SHOWING SOUTHERLY CROSS- EQUATORIAL SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS WILL DECAY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT REINFORCING SW IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE NEXT THE 36 HOURS.
CHRISTENSEN
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