922
AXPZ20 KNHC 181600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 18 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N92W TO 11N99W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N121W TO 06N133W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 08N133W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W AND 129W, AND WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A COMPONENT OF SW SWELL, SUBSIDING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEREAFTER THROUGH WED. HOWEVER,
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MON MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH WED MORNING.
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, VARIABLE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
SEAS TO 4 FT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WED.
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN SW SWELL
IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 8 FT MON MORNING AND SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF AND
NEARBY WATERS THROUGH WED.
GULF OF PANAMA: GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WED WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL,
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ON MON AS THE SWELL REACHES THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT BIG WAVES ALONG THOSE COASTS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS NORTH
OF TROUGH AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WEST OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD SAT
THROUGH LATE TUE NEXT WEEK BUILDING TO 8 FT SAT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N136W, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IN
THE TROPICS, A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N121W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 120W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE, REINFORCING SW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8
FT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE NEXT THE 24 HOURS.
RAMOS
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