369
AXPZ20 KNHC 221545
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 22 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 09N78W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF PANAMA AND THEN
ACROSS PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA CONTINUING ALMOST DUE WEST
TO 07N127W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 09N133W, THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 15N100W TO 12N87W TO
03N79W TO 05N101W, AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N109W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL MEANDER BEYOND 250 NM
SEAWARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IS OBSERVED WEST OF 100W, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST FLOW IS OBSERVED EAST OF 100W. AN AREA OF 6 TO
8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY NOTED EAST OF 115W WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT
BY EARLY WED. LITTLE CHANGE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
WHEN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
LOCALLY STRONG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEAR 26N113W ON FRI NIGHT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: A MODERATE NOCTURNAL SOUTHWEST BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON THU.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 13N108W. MODERATE TRADES ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR 12N123W
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THEN FORECAST THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N132W
LATE THIS WEEK RESULTING IN FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG TRADES
NORTH OF LOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
FURTHER NORTH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTH ON WED ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH ALONG A
POSITION FROM 32N 137W TO 30N142W TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EAST EVENTUALLY LOSING IDENTITY FROM 32N126W 24N128W ON
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH ONLY FRESH WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MIANTAIN AN
AREA OF 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29N TO 32N THROUGH
FRI MORNING.
NELSON
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