398
AXPZ20 KNHC 222147
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 22 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 09N78W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF PANAMA AND THEN
ACROSS PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA CONTINUING ALMOST DUE WEST
TO 07N123W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WEST TO BEYOND TO 08.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AREAS
BOUNDED BY A LINES FROM 14N100W TO 12N87W TO 03N80W TO 05N104W
TO 14N100W, AND FROM 13N115W TO 03N122W TO 09N140W TO 13N115W.
..DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL MEANDER BEYOND 250 NM
SEAWARD OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IS OBSERVED WEST OF 100W, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST FLOW IS OBSERVED EAST OF 100W. AN AREA OF 6 TO
8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY NOTED EAST OF 115W WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT
BY EARLY WED. LITTLE CHANGE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
WHEN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
LOCALLY STRONG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEAR 26N113W ON FRI NIGHT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: A MODERATE NOCTURNAL SOUTHWEST BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ALONG 30N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MODERATE
NORTHWEST BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON THU.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: MODERATE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MIXED SWELL RESULTING IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 09N90W WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 13N108W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MODERATE TRADES
CURRENTLY OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THU, BUT THE 5 TO
8 FT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR 12N123W ARE FORECAST TO
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE ITCZ
NEAR 10N132W LATE THIS WEEK RESULTING IN FRESH TO POSSIBLY
STRONG TRADES WITHIN 480 NM NORTH OF LOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT.
FURTHER NORTH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTH ON WED ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH ALONG A
POSITION FROM 32N137W TO 30N142W OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EAST EVENTUALLY LOSING IDENTITY FROM 32N126W 24N128W ON
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH ONLY FRESH WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29N TO 32N THROUGH
FRI MORNING.
NELSON
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