419
WTPZ41 KNHC 100243
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 09 2023
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL EARLIER TODAY IN SOUTHERN MEXICO, THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MAX HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING,
AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED. HOWEVER,
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, WHICH IS LIKELY
PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
COASTAL MEXICO AND SATELLITE TRENDS, MAX IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY, WITH THE INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT.
MAX IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 030/6 KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THIS TRAJECTORY UNTIL IT DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
ONCE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, THE REMNANTS OF MAX WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MAX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
2. HEAVY RAINS FROM MAX WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 18.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN
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