690
WTPZ32 KNHC 192052
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
300 PM MDT THU OCT 19 2023
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS
BARRILES TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ,
AND NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ
* NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. NORMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A SLOWER NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST LATER
THIS WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT NORMA IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE DATA IS 944 MB (27.88 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NORMA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP2.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE
WATCH AREAS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: NORMA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CALIFORNIA BAJA SUR. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NORMA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM MDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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