883
WTPZ32 KNHC 202051
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
300 PM MDT FRI OCT 20 2023
..AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND NORMA IS A MAJOR HURRICANE
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLOODING RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 109.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. NORMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. NORMA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON MONDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT NORMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM). AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH (76 KM/H).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NORMA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP2.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LAS ISLAS
MARIAS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: NORMA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SINALOA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NORMA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM MDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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