289
WTPZ32 KNHC 211154
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
600 AM MDT SAT OCT 21 2023
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 110.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO MAZATLAN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. NORMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NORMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NORMA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NORMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE
IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES (260 KM). AN OBSERVATION STATION IN CABO SAN LUCAS, BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH (76
KM/H) AND A GUST TO 66 MPH (106 KM/H).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB (28.41 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NORMA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP2.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREAS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS THIS MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: NORMA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SINALOA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NORMA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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