243
WTPZ32 KNHC 211753
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
1200 PM MDT SAT OCT 21 2023
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THE CENTER OF NORMA STILL
OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO MAZATLAN
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. NORMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NORMA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY. NORMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INLAND
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT NORMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM). AN OBSERVATION STATION IN CABO SAN LUCAS, BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 74 MPH (120 KM/H).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NORMA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP2.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AREAS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: NORMA WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH
MAXIMA OF 18 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THROUGH SUNDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF SINALOA THROUGH MONDAY. THESE
RAINS WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NORMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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